學(xué)術(shù)研究前沿| An extrapolation non-equigap grey model for operation management

研究成果：An extrapolation non-equigap grey model for operation management

作    者：張哲榮

發(fā)表期刊：Journal of Grey System,2023, 35(1): 101-112.

內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介：Accurate short-term demand forecasting is crucial for the production plandevelopment, but a shorter forecasting period implies that the product demands aremore unstable and, thus, that ascertaining their developing trends is difficult.Therefore, using large historical observations to build forecasting models may notresult in favorable forecasting performance. Prediction methods based on the latestlimited data have thus become vital for maintaining management efficiency andcompetitive advantage. Grey system theory is a technique for resolving thisdifficulty. However, the conventional grey model is designed for time-series datafeaturing equigaps, which limits its application scope. Although in the currentpublished research, scholars have proposed some non-equigap grey models;however, the newest datum is usually weakened to alleviate the randomness of datain these models, which may result in a larger prediction error. To conquer theseshortcomings, this study introduces linear extrapolation to modeling procedures foremphasizing the importance of the newest datum and then proposes an improvednon-equigap grey model. In the experiments of two real cases, the proposed methodexhibits favorable forecasting performance, indicating a feasible solution for smallnon-equigap dataforecasting.

期刊簡(jiǎn)介：《Journal of Grey System》是由Research Information Ltd所出版的英文期刊。期刊目前被SCIE引文索引數(shù)據(jù)庫收錄。

   作者簡(jiǎn)介：張哲榮博士，陳守仁商學(xué)院教授、碩士生導(dǎo)師。主要從事管理科學(xué)、生產(chǎn)管理、小數(shù)據(jù)分析等領(lǐng)域的教學(xué)與科研工作。主持福建省社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目2項(xiàng)、浙江省自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目2項(xiàng)、浙江省錢江人才計(jì)劃C類項(xiàng)目1項(xiàng)、臺(tái)灣地區(qū)行政院（“國家”科學(xué)委員會(huì)）項(xiàng)目2項(xiàng)、主持校級(jí)項(xiàng)目若干；在SCI/SSCI發(fā)表文章31篇，成果獲校級(jí)科研優(yōu)秀獎(jiǎng)，入選泉州市桐江學(xué)者特聘教授、泉州市高層次人才第三層次人才、寧波市3315計(jì)劃第七梯次長(zhǎng)期創(chuàng)新人才。